Merry Christmas!!

Barclays Analyst Sees Housing Rebound Coming In 2012

Barclays Capital (BCS: 11.295 -5.80%) analyst Stephen Kim predicts a housing recovery buoyed by improving jobs numbers and the fact prices for nondistressed homes will have stabilized without government support.

“In the absence of a government homebuyer incentives, prices for non-distressed home sales have stabilized for almost a year,” Kim said. “This is the most important trend in the housing industry right now, and we are amazed at how little attention it has been getting from the media and the street. This stability on the part of nondistressed prices has occurred despite a very high share of distressed activity and continued declines in overall prices.”

Barclays said recent economic data — including higher job creation in November, housing starts and improved homebuyer traffic — point to some improvement potential in the sector.

In mid-2010, the federal homebuyer tax credit expired, leaving the housing market without training wheels for the first time since the 2008 economic meltdown. Yet, prices in some housing markets remained stable on the back end.

With its new outlook in the market, Barclays upgraded D.R. Horton‘s (DHI: 12.545 -0.91%) stock to buy and raised price targets for D.R. Horton, Lennar (LEN: 19.33 -1.58%), Toll Brothers (TOL: 20.30 -2.26%) and Meritage Homes (MTH: 22.36 -2.02%).

At the same time, the investment bank raised its 2012 earnings-per-share estimates for D.R. Horton, Lennar, Meritage Homes, Pulte (PHM: 6.175 -2.29%) and Toll Brothers, while lowering its estimates for KB Home (KBH: 7.54 -6.91%).

“Thus, the key to timing housing’s recovery depends primarily on when these first-time buyers decide it is safe to buy a house,” Kim concluded.



November 2011 Greater Metropolitan Denver Home Market Statistics

Active Listings inventory continues to decline, 10% month over month and 30% year over year. Under contract activity and closed transactions activity remains seasonal with a continual decline month over month.

On a Monthly basis, comparison of month over month and year over year:

Single Family takeaways:
The inventory of unsold homes is at 14,275 units, down 10% with October ‘11 level and down 30% from November ‘10.

3,365 units were placed under contract in November, down 12% with October ‘11 and up 9% from November ‘10.

3,068 units sold in November ‘11, down 4% from October ‘11 and up 15% from November ‘10.

Single Family average prices, $252,009 for November ‘11, increased 3% for month over month and decreased 3% year over year.

Residential and Condo takeaways:
Residential average price, $275,951 for November ‘11, increased 2% month over month and decreased 2% year over year.

Condo average price, $153,526 for November ‘11, decreased 4% month over month and
decreased 7% year over year.

Condo median price, $125,000 in November ’11, remains stable month over month and year over year.

Residential median prices increased 2% to $230,300 in November ‘11 when compared to October ‘11 and decreased 2% when compared to November ‘10.

On a Year to Date basis, comparison of YTD 11/2011 to YTD 11/2010:
Residential:                                                               Condo:

Sales units 35,735 vs 37,068 (↓4%)                          Sales units 7,325 vs 7,439 (↓2%)
Median Price $229,900 vs $230,250 (↔)                 Median Price $125,000 vs $133,000 (↓6%)
Average Price $280,230 vs $282,717 (↓1%)            Average Price $158,520 vs $160,533 (↓1%)
Sales Volume $8.1B vs $8.0B (↑1%)                        Sales Volume $1.1B vs $1.1B (↔)
Days on Market 105 vs 89 (↑22%)                            Days on Market 117 vs 95 (↑23%)

The above representation may or may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.
By definition, Single Family equals Residential plus Condo.
Source: Metrolist, Inc.
©2011 Garold D Bauer, All Rights Reserved, Information Deemed Reliable But NotGuaranteed